Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming
Regions are classified as showing either
- agreement on warming in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much
greater than average warming'),
- agreement on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater than
average warming'),
- agreement on warming less than the global average (‘Less than average
warming'), or
- disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming
(‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming').
There is also a category for agreement on cooling (which never occurs).
A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for
agreement. The global annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for
A2 
and 0.9 to 3.4°C for
B2 ,
and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for
A2
and 1.3 to 4.7°C for
B2 .
[Based on
Chapter 10 ,
Box 1 , Figure 1 ]
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Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming
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