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Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for :(a) the past 140 years Figure 1a: Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature over the last 140 years. "The Earth’s surface temperature is shown year by year (red bars) and approximately decade by decade (black line, a filtered annual curve suppressing fluctuations below near decadal time-scales). There are uncertainties in the annual data (thin black whisker bars represent the 95%
confidence range) due to data gaps, random instrumental errors and uncertainties,
uncertainties in bias corrections in the ocean surface temperature data and also in
adjustments for urbanisation over the land. Over both the last 140 years and 100 years,
the best estimate is that the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.6 ±
0.2°C". Source & ©
IPCC TAR SPM of WG I (b) The past 1,000 years Figure 1b: Variations of the Earth’s surface temperature over the last millennium. The year by year (blue curve) and 50 year average (black curve) variations of the average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere for the past 1000 years have been reconstructed from “proxy” data calibrated against thermometer data (see list of the main proxy data in the diagram). The 95% confidence range in the annual data is represented by the grey region. These
uncertainties increase in more distant times and are always much larger than in the
instrumental record due to the use of relatively sparse proxy data. Nevertheless the
rate and duration of warming of the 20th century has been much greater than in any of
the previous nine centuries. Similarly, it is
likely7 that the 1990s have been the
warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year of the millennium. Source & ©
www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/005.htm Related publication:
Other Figures & Tables on this publication: Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns by Region Facts on environmental matters Table SPM.1 Estimates of potential global greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 and in 2020 The Emissions Scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group III Footnotes for Table 1 of IPCC SPM WG II Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group 1 Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group II Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for : Indicators of the human influence on the atmosphere during the Industrial Era The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for the year 2000, relative to 1750 Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures The global climate of the 21st Century Documented Climate Change Impacts Figure SPM-2 - Reasons for Concern Figure SPM-3 - Projected Changes in Annual Runoff Footnotes to Table SPM-1 (Question 6.2.2) Many external factors force climate change The annual mean change of the temperature (colour shading) and its range (isolines) Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming |
