Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns by Region
Africa
Asia
Australia and New Zealand
Europe
Latin Americ
North America
Polar Regions
Small Island States
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in Africa
- "Adaptive capacity of human systems in
Africa is low due to lack of economic resources and technology, and
vulnerability high as a result of heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture,
frequent droughts and floods, and poverty.
[5.1.7]
- Grain yields are projected to decrease for many scenarios, diminishing
food security, particularly in small food-importing countries (medium to high
confidence6).
[5.1.2]
- Major rivers of Africa are highly sensitive to climate variation; average
runoff and water availability would decrease in Mediterranean and southern
countries of Africa (medium confidence6).
[5.1.1]
- Extension of ranges of infectious disease vectors would adversely affect
human health in Africa (medium confidence6).
[5.1.4]
- Desertification would be exacerbated by reductions in average annual
rainfall, runoff, and soil moisture, especially in southern, North, and West
Africa (medium confidence6).
[5.1.6]
- Increases in droughts, floods, and other extreme events would add to
stresses on water resources, food security, human health, and infrastructures,
and would constrain development in Africa (high confidence6).
[5.1]
- Significant extinctions of plant and animal species are projected and
would impact rural livelihoods, tourism, and genetic resources (medium
confidence6).
[5.1.3]
- Coastal settlements in, for example, the Gulf of Guinea, Senegal, Gambia,
Egypt, and along the East-Southern African coast would be adversely impacted by
sea-level rise through inundation and coastal erosion (high confidence6).
[5.1.5]
"
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in Asia
- "Adaptive capacity of human systems is
low and vulnerability is high in the developing countries of Asia; the developed
countries of Asia are more able to adapt and less vulnerable.
[5.2.7]
- Extreme events have increased in temperate and tropical Asia, including
floods, droughts, forest fires, and tropical cyclones (high confidence6).
[5.2.4]
- Decreases in agricultural productivity and aquaculture due to thermal and
water stress, sea-level rise, floods and droughts, and tropical cyclones would
diminish food security in many countries of arid, tropical, and temperate Asia;
agriculture would expand and increase in productivity in northern areas (medium
confidence6).
[5.2.1]
- Runoff and water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia but
increase in northern Asia (medium confidence6).
[5.2.3]
- Human health would be threatened by possible increased exposure to
vector-borne infectious diseases and heat stress in parts of Asia (medium
confidence6).
[5.2.6]
- Sea-level rise and an increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones would
displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temperate and
tropical Asia; increased intensity of rainfall would increase flood risks in
temperate and tropical Asia (high confidence6).
[5.2.5
and
Table TS-8 ]
- Climate change would increase energy demand, decrease tourism attraction,
and influence transportation in some regions of Asia (medium confidence6).
[5.2.4
and
5.2.7 ]
- Climate change would exacerbate threats to biodiversity due to land-use
and land-cover change and population pressure in Asia (medium confidence6).
Sea-level rise would put ecological security at risk, including mangroves and
coral reefs (high confidence6).
[5.2.2 ]
- Poleward movement of the southern boundary of the permafrost zones of Asia
would result in a change of thermokarst and thermal erosion with negative
impacts on social infrastructure and industries (medium confidence6).
[5.2.2 ]"
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in Australia and New Zealand
- "Adaptive capacity of human systems is
generally high, but there are groups in Australia and New Zealand, such as
indigenous peoples in some regions, with low capacity to adapt and consequently
high vulnerability.
[5.3
and
5.3.5 ]
- The net impact on some temperate crops of climate and CO2 changes may
initially be beneficial, but this balance is expected to become negative for
some areas and crops with further climate change (medium confidence6).
[5.3.3 ]
- Water is likely to be a key issue (high confidence6) due to projected
drying trends over much of the region and change to a more El Niño-like average
state.
[5.3
and
5.3.1 ]
- Increases in the intensity of heavy rains and tropical cyclones (medium
confidence6), and region-specific changes in the frequency of tropical cyclones,
would alter the risks to life, property, and ecosystems from flooding, storm
surges, and wind damage.
[5.3.4 ]
- Some species with restricted climatic niches and which are unable to
migrate due to fragmentation of the landscape, soil differences, or topography
could become endangered or extinct (high confidence6). Australian
ecosystems that are particularly vulnerable
to climate change include coral reefs, arid and semi-arid habitats in southwest
and inland Australia, and Australian alpine systems. Freshwater wetlands in
coastal zones in both Australia and New Zealand are vulnerable, and some New
Zealand ecosystems are vulnerable to accelerated invasion by weeds.
[5.3.2 ]"
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in Europe
- "Adaptive capacity is generally high
in Europe for human systems; southern Europe and the European Arctic are more
vulnerable than other parts of Europe.
[5.4
and
5.4.6 ]
- Summer runoff, water availability, and soil moisture are likely to
decrease in southern Europe, and would widen the difference between the north
and drought-prone south; increases are likely in winter in the north and south
(high confidence6).
[5.4.1 ]
- Half of alpine glaciers and large permafrost areas could disappear by end
of the 21st century (medium confidence6).
[5.4.1 ]
- River flood hazard will increase across much of Europe (medium to high
confidence6); in coastal areas, the risk of flooding, erosion, and wetland loss
will increase substantially with implications for human settlement, industry,
tourism, agriculture, and coastal natural habitats.
[5.4.1
and
5.4.4 ]
- There will be some broadly positive effects on agriculture in northern
Europe (medium confidence6); productivity will decrease in southern and eastern
Europe (medium confidence6).
[5.4.3 ]
- Upward and northward shift of biotic zones will take place. Loss of
important habitats (wetlands, tundra, isolated habitats) would threaten some
species (high confidence6).
[5.4.2 ]
- Higher temperatures and heat waves may change traditional summer tourist
destinations, and less reliable snow conditions may impact adversely on winter
tourism (medium confidence6).
[5.4.4 ]"
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in Latin America
- "Adaptive capacity of human systems in
Latin America is low, particularly with respect to extreme climate events, and
vulnerability is high.
[5.5 ]
- Loss and retreat of glaciers would adversely impact runoff and water
supply in areas where glacier melt is an important water source (high
confidence6).
[5.5.1 ]
- Floods and droughts would become more frequent with floods increasing
sediment loads and degrade water quality in some areas (high confidence6).
[5.5 ]
- Increases in intensity of tropical cyclones would alter the risks to life,
property, and ecosystems from heavy rain,
flooding, storm surges, and wind damages (high confidence6).
[5.5 ]
- Yields of important crops are projected to decrease in many locations in
Latin America, even when the effects of CO2 are taken into account; subsistence
farming in some regions of Latin America could be threatened (high confidence6).
[5.5.4 ]
- The geographical distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases would
expand poleward and to higher elevations, and exposures to diseases such as
malaria, dengue fever, and cholera will increase (medium confidence6).
[5.5.5 ]"
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in North America
- "Coastal human settlements, productive activities, infrastructure, and
mangrove ecosystems would be negatively affected by sea-level rise (medium
confidence6).
[5.5.3 ]
- The rate of biodiversity loss would increase (high confidence6).
[5.5.2 ]
- Adaptive capacity of human systems is generally high and vulnerability low
in North America, but some communities (e.g., indigenous peoples and those
dependent on climate-sensitive resources) are more vulnerable; social, economic,
and demographic trends are changing vulnerabilities in subregions.
[5.6
and
5.6.1 ]
- Some crops would benefit from modest warming accompanied by increasing
CO2, but effects would vary among crops and regions (high confidence6),
including declines due to drought in some areas of Canada's Prairies and the
U.S. Great Plains, potential increased food production in areas of Canada north
of current production areas, and increased warm-temperate mixed forest
production (medium confidence6). However, benefits for crops would decline at an
increasing rate and possibly become a net loss with further warming (medium
confidence6).
[5.6.4 ]
- Snowmelt-dominated watersheds in western North America will experience
earlier spring peak flows (high confidence6), reductions in summer flows (medium
confidence6), and reduced lake levels and outflows for the Great Lakes-St.
Lawrence under most scenarios (medium confidence6); adaptive responses would
offset some, but not all, of the impacts on water users and on aquatic
ecosystems (medium confidence6).
[5.6.2 ]
- Unique natural ecosystems such as prairie wetlands, alpine tundra, and
cold-water ecosystems will be at risk and effective adaptation is unlikely
(medium confidence6).
[5.6.5 ]
- Sea-level rise would result in enhanced coastal erosion, coastal flooding,
loss of coastal wetlands, and increased risk from storm surges, particularly in
Florida and much of the U.S. Atlantic coast (high confidence6).
[5.6.1 ]
- Weather-related insured losses and public sector disaster relief payments
in North America have been increasing; insurance sector planning has not yet
systematically included climate change information, so there is potential for
surprise (high confidence6).
[5.6.1 ]
- Vector-borne diseases—including malaria, dengue fever, and Lyme
disease—may expand their ranges in North America; exacerbated air quality and
heat stress morbidity and mortality would occur (medium confidence6);
socioeconomic factors and public health measures would play a large role in
determining the incidence and extent of health effects.
[5.6.6 ]"
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in the Polar Regions
- "Natural systems in polar regions are highly vulnerable to climate change
and current ecosystems have low
Adaptive capacity; technologically developed
communities are likely to adapt readily to climate change, but some indigenous
communities, in which traditional lifestyles are followed, have little capacity
and few options for adaptation.
[5.7 ]
- Climate change in polar regions is expected to be among the largest and
most rapid of any region on the Earth, and will cause major physical,
ecological, sociological, and economic impacts, especially in the Arctic,
Antarctic Peninsula, and Southern Ocean (high confidence6).
[5.7 ]
- Changes in climate that have already taken place are manifested in the
decrease in extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice, permafrost thawing, coastal
erosion, changes in ice sheets and ice shelves, and altered distribution and
abundance of species in polar regions (high confidence6).
[5.7 ]
- Some polar ecosystems may adapt through eventual replacement by migration
of species and changing species composition, and possibly by eventual increases
in overall productivity; ice edge systems that provide habitat for some species
would be threatened (medium confidence6).
[5.7 ]
- Polar regions contain important drivers of climate change. Once triggered,
they may continue for centuries, long after greenhouse gas concentrations are
stabilized, and cause irreversible impacts on ice sheets, global ocean
circulation, and sea-level rise (medium confidence6).
[5.7 ]"
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns in the Small Island States
- "Adaptive capacity of human systems is
generally low in small island states, and vulnerability high; small island
states are likely to be among the countries most seriously impacted by climate
change.
[5.8 ]
- The projected sea-level rise of 5 mm yr-1 for the next 100 years would
cause enhanced coastal erosion, loss of land and property, dislocation of
people, increased risk from storm surges, reduced resilience of coastal
ecosystems, saltwater intrusion into
freshwater resources, and high resource costs to respond to and adapt to these
changes (high confidence6).
[5.8.2
and
5.8.5 ]
- Islands with very limited water supplies are highly vulnerable to the
impacts of climate change on the water balance (high confidence6).
[5.8.4 ]
- Coral reefs would be negatively affected by bleaching and by reduced
calcification rates due to higher CO2 levels (medium confidence6); mangrove, sea
grass bed, and other coastal ecosystems and the associated biodiversity would be
adversely affected by rising temperatures and accelerated sea-level rise (medium
confidence6).
[4.4
and
5.8.3 ]
- Declines in coastal ecosystems would negatively impact reef fish and
threaten reef fisheries, those who earn their livelihoods from reef fisheries,
and those who rely on the fisheries as a significant food source (medium
confidence6).
[4.4
and
5.8.4 ]
- Limited arable land and soil salinization makes agriculture of small
island states, both for domestic food production and cash crop exports, highly
vulnerable to climate change (high confidence6).
[5.8.4 ]
- Tourism, an important source of income and foreign exchange for many
islands, would face severe disruption from climate change and sea-level rise
(high confidence6).
[5.8.5 ]
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
- Because the available studies have not employed a common set of climate
scenarios and methods, and because of uncertainties regarding the sensitivities
and adaptability of natural and social systems, the assessment of regional
vulnerabilities is necessarily qualitative.
- The regions listed in Table SPM-2 are graphically depicted in Figure TS-2
of the
Technical Summary ."
Source: IPCC TAR SPM of WG II pages 14-17
Related publication: Other Figures & Tables on this publication: Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns by Region Facts on environmental matters Table SPM.1 Estimates of potential global greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 and in 2020 The Emissions Scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Expert Links on Climate Change Other views on Climate Change Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group III Footnotes for Table 1 of IPCC SPM WG II Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group 1 Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group II Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for : Indicators of the human influence on the atmosphere during the Industrial Era The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for the year 2000,
relative to 1750 Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures The global climate of the 21st Century Documented Climate Change Impacts Figure SPM-2 - Reasons for Concern Figure SPM-3 - Projected Changes in Annual Runoff
Carbon in Oil, Gas and Coal Reserves Compared with Historic Fossil Fuel Carbon
Emissions (in gigatonnes) Footnotes to Table SPM-1 (Question 6.2.2) Figure 8.1 Precipitation Figure 8.2 Hurricanes Schematic of observed variations of the temperature
indicators / the hydrological and
storm-related indicators Many external factors force climate change The annual mean change of the temperature (colour shading) and its range (isolines) Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming GCRIO UNFCCC Pew Climate NCDC Climate Ark Climatic Research Unit CICERO World Business Council for Sustainable Development Expert Links on Climate Change |