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3. What climate changes are expected for the future?

3.1. What emission scenarios are projected?

See IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group 1:

• Chapter 4.4.5  : Atmospheric Composition for the IPCC Scenarios to 2100 See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II Greenhouse gases
• See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 
• Greenhouse gases
  • Chapter 3.7.3  : Coupled Model Responses and Implications for Future CO₂ Concentrations
  • Chapter 3.7.1  : Terrestrial Carbon Model Responses to Scenarios of Change in CO₂ and Climate
  • Chapter 3.7.2  : Ocean Carbon Model Responses to Scenarios of Change in CO₂ and Climate
  • Chapter 3.2.2  : Terrestrial Carbon Processes
  • Chapter 4.4.5  : Atmospheric Composition for the IPCC Scenarios to 2100
  • Chapter 4.5  : Open Questions
  • Chapter 4.6  : Overall Impact of Global Atmospheric Chemistry Change
  • See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 

Aerosols

• Chapter 5.5.2  : Climate Change and Natural Aerosol Emissions
• Chapter 5.5.3  : Simulation of Future Aerosol Concentrations
• See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 

Radiative forcing over the 21st century

• Chapter 6.15.2  : SRES Scenarios
• See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 

3.2. What climate changes are projected for the 21st century?

See IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group 1:

• Temperature
  • Chapter 9.3.3  : Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios
  • Chapter 2.2.2  : Temperature in the Instrumental Record for Land and Oceans
  • Chapter2.3.2  : Temperature of the Past 1,000 Years
  • Chapter 2.4  : How Rapidly did Climate Change in the Distant Past?
  • Chapter 10.3.2  : Simulations of Climate Change
  • Chapter 8.6.1  : 20th Century Coupled Model Integrations Including Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols
  • Chapter 12.4.3  : Optimal Fingerprint Methods
  • Chapter 13.5.1  : Representing Uncertainty in Climate Scenarios
  • Chapter 13.5.2  : Approaches for Representing Uncertainties
  • Chapter 9.3.2  : Patterns of Future Climate Change
  • See also Box 10.1 : Regional climate change in AOGCMs...

• Precipitation
  • Chapter 9.3.1  : Global Mean Response
  • Chapter 9.3.6  : Changes of Extreme Events
  • Chapter 10.3.2  : Simulations of Climate Change
  • See also Box 10.1 : Regional climate change in AOGCMs...

• Extreme events
  • Chapter 2.1  : Observed Climate Variability and Change
  • Chapter 2.2  : How Much is the World Warming?
  • Chapter 2.5  : How have Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture Changed?
  • Chapter 2.7.2  : Is There Evidence for Changes in Variability or Extremes?
  • Chapter 2.7.3  : Is There Evidence for Changes in Extreme Weather or Climate Events?
  • Chapter 9.3.6  : Changes of Extreme Events
  • Chapter 10.3.2  : Simulations of Climate Change
  • Chapter 2.7.3  : Is There Evidence for Changes in Extreme Weather or Climate Events?

• El Niño
  • Chapter 9.3.5  : Changes in Variability Thermohaline circulation Chapter 9.3.4  : Factors that Contribute to the Response
  • Monsoons
    Chapter 9.3.5  : Changes in Variability
  • Thermohaline circulation
    Chapter 9.3.4  : Factors that Contribute to the Response
  • Snow and ice
    Chapter 9.3.2  : Patterns of Future Climate Change
    Chapter 11.5.1  : Global Average Sea Level Change 1990 to 2100
    Chapter 11.5.4  : Longer Term Changes
  • Sea level
    Chapter 11.5.1  : Global Average Sea Level Change 1990 to 2100

3.3. What climate changes are projected for future centuries?

See IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group 1:

• Chapter 3.2.3  : Ocean Carbon Processes
• Chapter 4.4  : Projections of Natural Emissions in 2100
• Chapter 6.15  : Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings
• Chapter 9.3.3  : Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios
• Chapter 9.3.4  : Factors that Contribute to the Response
• Chapter 11.5.4  : Longer Term Changes

Contributors: IPCC references come from
IPCC WG I SPM ,
other references are selected by GreenFacts Foundation

Climate Change 2001 Assessment

Adaptive Capacity, Vulnerability, and Key Concerns by Region

Facts on environmental matters

Table SPM.1 Estimates of potential global greenhouse gas emission reductions in 2010 and in 2020

The Emissions Scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

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Other views on Climate Change

Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group III

Footnotes for Table 1 of IPCC SPM WG II

Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group 1

Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group II

Variations of the Earth's surface temperature for :

Indicators of the human influence on the atmosphere during the Industrial Era

The global mean radiative forcing of the climate system for the year 2000, relative to 1750

Simulated annual global mean surface temperatures

The global climate of the 21st Century

Documented Climate Change Impacts

Figure SPM-2 - Reasons for Concern

Figure SPM-3 - Projected Changes in Annual Runoff

Carbon in Oil, Gas and Coal Reserves Compared with Historic Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions (in gigatonnes)

Footnotes to Table SPM-1 (Question 6.2.2)

Figure 8.1 Precipitation

Figure 8.2 Hurricanes

Schematic of observed variations of the temperature indicators / the hydrological and storm-related indicators

Many external factors force climate change

The annual mean change of the temperature (colour shading) and its range (isolines)

Analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming

GCRIO

UNFCCC

Pew Climate

NCDC

Climate Ark

Climatic Research Unit

CICERO

World Business Council for Sustainable Development

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