Table 5.1. Main Assumptions Concerning Indirect and Direct Driving Forces Used in the MA Scenarios
("Industrialized" and "developing" nations refer to the countries at the beginning of the scenario; some may change by 2050.)
|
Global Orchestration |
Order from Strength |
Adapting Mosaic |
TechnoGarden |
Industrialized Countries |
Developing Countries |
Indirect drivers |
Demographics |
high migration; low fertility and mortality levels
2050 population: 8.1 billion |
high fertility and mortality levels (esp. in developing countries); low migration
2050 population: 9.6 billion |
high fertility level;high mortality levels until 2010 then to medium by 2050; low migration
2050 population: 9.5 billion |
medium fertility and mortality levels; medium migration
2050 population: 8.8 billion |
Average income growth |
high |
medium |
low |
similar to Order from Strength but with increasing growth rates toward 2050 |
lower than Global Orchestration, but catching up toward 2050 |
GDP growth rates/capita per year until 2050 |
Global: 1995-2020: 2.4% per year
2020-2050: 3.0% per year |
1995-2020: 1.4% per year
2020-2050: 1.0% per year |
1995-2020: 1.5% per year
2020-2050: 1.9% per year |
1995-2020: 1.9% per year
2020-2050: 2.5% per year |
industrialized c.:1995-2020: 3.2% per year
2020-2050: 2.1% per year
developing c.:1995-2020: 4.8% per year
2020-2050: 4.8% per year |
1995-2020: 2.6% per year
2020-2050: 1.4% per year |
1995-2020: 3.0% per year
2020-2050: 2.3% per year |
industrialized c.:
1995-2020: 2.6% per year
2020-2050: 1.7% per year
developing c:
c.:1995-2020: 3.5% per year
2020-2050: 3.5% per year |
industrialized c.: 1995-2020: 2.9% per year
2020-2050: 1.9% per year
developing c.:1995-2020: 4.0% per year
2020-2050: 4.3% per year |
Income distribution |
becomes more equal |
similar to today |
similar to today, then becomes more equal |
becomes more equal |
Investments into new produced assets |
high |
medium |
low |
begins like Order from strength, then increases in tempo |
high |
Investments into human capital |
high |
medium |
low |
begins like Order from strength, then increases in tempo |
medium |
Overall trend in technology advances |
high |
low |
medium-low |
medium in general; high for environmental technology |
International cooperation |
strong |
weak - international competition |
weak - focus on local environment |
strong |
Attitude toward environmental policy |
reactive |
reactive |
proactive - learning |
proactive |
Energy demand and lifestyle |
energy-intensive |
regionalized assumptions |
regionalized assumptions |
high level of energy resources and rapid technology change |
Energy supply |
market liberalization; selects least-cost options; rapid technology change |
focus on domestic energy resources |
some preference for clean energy resources |
preference for renewable energy resources and rapid technology change |
Climate policy |
no |
no |
no |
yes, aims at stabilization of CO2-equivalent concentration at 550 ppmv |
Approach to achieving sustainability |
economic growth leads to sustainable development |
national-level policies; conservation; reserves, parks |
local-regional co-management; common-property institutions |
green-technology; eco-efficiency; tradable ecological property rights |
Direct drivers
|
Land use change |
global forest loss until 2025 slightly below historic rate, stabilizes after 2025; ~10% increase in arable land |
global forest loss faster than historic rate until 2025; near current rate after 2025; ~20% increase in arable land compared with 2000 |
global forest loss until 2025 slightly below historic rate; stabilizes after 2025; ~10% increase in arable land |
net increase in forest cover globally until 2025; slow loss after 2025; ~9% increase in arable land |
Greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 |
CO2: 20.1 GtC-eq
CH4: 3.7 GtC-eq
N2O: 1.1 GtC-eq
Other GHG: 0.7 GtC-eq |
CO2: 15.4 GtC-eq
CH4: 3.3GtC-eq
N2O: 1.1 GtC-eq
GHG: 0.5 GtC-eq |
CO2: 13.3 GtC-eq
CH4: 3.2 GtC-eq
N2O: 0.9 GtC-eq
Other GHG: 0.6 GtC-eq |
CO2: 4.7 bfGtC-eq
CH4: 1.6 GtC-eq
N2O: 0.6 GtC-eq
Other GHG: 0.2 GtC-eq |
Air pollution emissions |
SO2 emissions stabilize; NOx emissions increase from 2000 to 2050 |
both SO2 and NOx emissions increase globally |
SO2 emissions decline; NOx emissions increase slowly |
strong reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions |
Climate change |
2.0oC in 2050 and 3.5oC in 2100 above pre-industrial |
1.7oC in 2050 and 3.3oC in 2100 above pre-industria |
1.9oC in 2050 and 2.8oC in 2100 above pre-industrial |
1.5oC in 2050 and 1.9oC in 2100 above pre-industrial |
Nutrient loading |
increase in N transport in rivers |
increase in N transport in rivers |
increase in N transport in rivers |
decrease in N transport in rivers |
Source:
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Synthesis Report (2005),
Chapter 5, pp.75-76
(Scenarios Working Group Report, S.SDM Summary)
Related publication:
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:
Box 3.1 Table. Selected Water-related Diseases.
Table 1.1. Comparative table of reporting systems as defined by the Millennium Assessment
Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Provisioning services
Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Regulating services
Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Cultural services
Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Supporting services
Table 2.2. Indicative Ecosystem Service Trade-offs.
Table 5.1. Main Assumptions Concerning Indirect and Direct Driving Forces Used in the MA Scenarios
Table 5.2. Outcomes of Scenarios for Ecosystem
Services in 2050 Compared with 2000
Table 5.3. Outcomes of Scenarios for Human Well-being in 2050 Compared with 2000
Table 5.4. Costs and Benefits of Proactive as Contrasted with Reactive Ecosystem Management as Revealed in the MA Scenarios
Table 8.1. Applicability of Decision Support Methods and Frameworks
Marine, Coastal, and Island Systems
Urban, Dryland and Polar systems
Forest systems
Cultivated systems
Inland water and Mountain systems
Box Figure B. Proportion of Population with Improved Drinking Water Supply in 2002
Box Figure C. Proportion of population with improved sanitation coverage in 2002
Figure 1.2. Conversion of Terrestrial Biomes
Figure 1.3. Decline in Trophic Level of Fisheries Catch Since 1950
Figure 1.4. Locations reported by various studies as undergoing high rates of land cover change in the past few decades.
Figure 1.5. Global Trends in the Creation of Reactive Nitrogen on Earth by Human Activity, with Projection to 2050
Figure 1.7. Growth in Number of Marine Species Introductions.
Figure 1.8. Species Extinction Rates
Figure 3.4. Collapse of Atlantic Cod Stocks Off the East Coast of Newfoundland in 1992
Figure 3.5. Dust Cloud Off the Northwest Coast of Africa, March 6, 2004
Figure 3.6. Changes in Economic Structure for Selected Countries
Figure 3.7. Human Population Growth Rates, 1990-2000, and Per Capita GDP and Biological Productivity in 2000 in MA Ecological Systems
Figure 4.1. GDP Average Annual Growth, 1990-2003
Figure 4.2. Per capita GDP Average Annual Growth, 1990-2003
Figure 4.3. Main Direct Drivers of Change in Biodiversity and Ecosystems
Figure 5.1. MA World Population Scenarios
Figure 5.3. Number of Ecosystem Services Enhanced or Degraded by 2050 in the Four MA Scenarios
Figure 6.1. MA Sub-Global Assessments
Figure 7.1. Characteristic Time and Space Scales Related to Ecosystems and Their Services
Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being
Box 6.1 Local Adaptations of MA Conceptual Framework
Scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
MA Scenarios - Global Orchestration
MA Scenarios - Order from Strength
MA Scenarios - TechnoGarden
MA Scenarios - Adapting Mosaic
Marine, Coastal and Island systems
Urban, Dryland and Polar systems
Forest and Cultivated systems
Inland waters and Mountain systems
MA Systems
Box 2.1: Ecosystem Services
Box 2.1: Ecosystem Services
Box 3.2. Ecosystems and the Millennium Development Goals
Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being:
Basic Materials for a Good Life
Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being:
Health
Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being:
Good Social Relations
Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being:
Security
Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being:
Freedom of Choice and Action
Box 6.1 Local Adaptations of MA Conceptual Framework
Figure 1.1. Time Series of Intercepted Continental Runoff and Large Reservoir Storage, 1900-2000
Figure 1.6. Estimated Total Reactive Nitrogen Deposition from the Atmosphere
Figure 2.1. Estimated Global Marine Fish Catch, 1950-2001.
Figure 2.2. Trend in Mean Depth of Catch Since 1950.
Figure 3.1. Net National Savings Adjusted for Investments in Human Capital, Natural Resource Depletion, and Damage Caused by Pollution compared with Standard Net National Savings Measurements
Figure 3.2. Annual Flow of Benefits from Forests in Selected Countries
Figure 3.3. Economic Benefits Under Alternate Management Practices
Table 4.1. Increase in Nitrogen Fluxes in Rivers to Coastal Oceans
Figure 5.2. Comparison of Global River Nitrogen Export
Figure 5.4. Number of Undernourished Children Projected in 2050 Under MA Scenarios
Figure 5.5. Net Change in Components of Human Well-being Between 2000 and 2050 Under MA Scenarios.
Figure 8.1. Total Carbon Market Value per Year (in million dollars nominal)