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Table 5.1. Main Assumptions Concerning Indirect and Direct Driving Forces Used in the MA Scenarios

("Industrialized" and "developing" nations refer to the countries at the beginning of the scenario; some may change by 2050.)

  Global Orchestration Order from Strength Adapting Mosaic TechnoGarden
Industrialized Countries Developing Countries
Indirect drivers
Demographics high migration; low fertility and mortality levels

2050 population: 8.1 billion
high fertility and mortality levels (esp. in developing countries); low migration

2050 population: 9.6 billion
high fertility level;high mortality levels until 2010 then to medium by 2050; low migration

2050 population: 9.5 billion
medium fertility and mortality levels; medium migration

2050 population: 8.8 billion
Average income growth high medium low similar to Order from Strength but with increasing growth rates toward 2050 lower than Global Orchestration, but catching up toward 2050
GDP growth rates/capita per year until 2050 Global:
1995-2020: 2.4% per year

2020-2050: 3.0% per year
1995-2020: 1.4% per year

2020-2050: 1.0% per year
1995-2020: 1.5% per year

2020-2050: 1.9% per year
1995-2020: 1.9% per year

2020-2050: 2.5% per year
industrialized c.:1995-2020: 3.2% per year
2020-2050: 2.1% per year

developing c.:1995-2020: 4.8% per year
2020-2050: 4.8% per year
1995-2020: 2.6% per year

2020-2050: 1.4% per year
1995-2020: 3.0% per year

2020-2050: 2.3% per year
industrialized c.:
1995-2020: 2.6% per year
2020-2050: 1.7% per year

developing c: c.:1995-2020: 3.5% per year
2020-2050: 3.5% per year
industrialized c.: 1995-2020: 2.9% per year
2020-2050: 1.9% per year


developing c.:1995-2020: 4.0% per year
2020-2050: 4.3% per year
Income distribution becomes more equal similar to today similar to today, then becomes more equal becomes more equal
Investments into new produced assets high medium low begins like Order from strength, then increases in tempo high
Investments into human capital high medium low begins like Order from strength, then increases in tempo medium
Overall trend in technology advances high low medium-low medium in general; high for environmental technology
International cooperation strong weak - international competition weak - focus on local environment strong
Attitude toward environmental policy reactive reactive proactive - learning proactive
Energy demand and lifestyle energy-intensive regionalized assumptions regionalized assumptions high level of energy resources and rapid technology change
Energy supply market liberalization; selects least-cost options; rapid technology change focus on domestic energy resources some preference for clean energy resources preference for renewable energy resources and rapid technology change
Climate policy no no no yes, aims at stabilization of CO2-equivalent concentration at 550 ppmv
Approach to achieving sustainability economic growth leads to sustainable development national-level policies; conservation; reserves, parks local-regional co-management; common-property institutions green-technology; eco-efficiency; tradable ecological property rights
Direct drivers
Land use change global forest loss until 2025 slightly below historic rate, stabilizes after 2025; ~10% increase in arable land global forest loss faster than historic rate until 2025; near current rate after 2025; ~20% increase in arable land compared with 2000 global forest loss until 2025 slightly below historic rate; stabilizes after 2025; ~10% increase in arable land net increase in forest cover globally until 2025; slow loss after 2025; ~9% increase in arable land
Greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 CO2: 20.1 GtC-eq
CH4: 3.7 GtC-eq
N2O: 1.1 GtC-eq
Other GHG: 0.7 GtC-eq
CO2: 15.4 GtC-eq
CH4: 3.3GtC-eq
N2O: 1.1 GtC-eq
GHG: 0.5 GtC-eq
CO2: 13.3 GtC-eq
CH4: 3.2 GtC-eq
N2O: 0.9 GtC-eq
Other GHG: 0.6 GtC-eq
CO2: 4.7 bfGtC-eq
CH4: 1.6 GtC-eq
N2O: 0.6 GtC-eq
Other GHG: 0.2 GtC-eq
Air pollution emissions SO2 emissions stabilize;
NOx emissions increase from 2000 to 2050
both SO2 and NOx emissions increase globally SO2 emissions decline;
NOx emissions increase slowly
strong reductions in SO2 and NOx emissions
Climate change 2.0oC in 2050 and 3.5oC in 2100 above pre-industrial 1.7oC in 2050 and 3.3oC in 2100 above pre-industria 1.9oC in 2050 and 2.8oC in 2100 above pre-industrial 1.5oC in 2050 and 1.9oC in 2100 above pre-industrial
Nutrient loading increase in N transport in rivers increase in N transport in rivers increase in N transport in rivers decrease in N transport in rivers

Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
 Synthesis Report (2005),
Chapter 5, pp.75-76
(Scenarios Working Group Report, S.SDM Summary)

Related publication:
Ecosystem Change homeEcosystem Change
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:

Box 3.1 Table. Selected Water-related Diseases.

Table 1.1. Comparative table of reporting systems as defined by the Millennium Assessment

Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Provisioning services

Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Regulating services

Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Cultural services

Table 2.1. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Supporting services

Table 2.2. Indicative Ecosystem Service Trade-offs.

Table 5.1. Main Assumptions Concerning Indirect and Direct Driving Forces Used in the MA Scenarios

Table 5.2. Outcomes of Scenarios for Ecosystem Services in 2050 Compared with 2000

Table 5.3. Outcomes of Scenarios for Human Well-being in 2050 Compared with 2000

Table 5.4. Costs and Benefits of Proactive as Contrasted with Reactive Ecosystem Management as Revealed in the MA Scenarios

Table 8.1. Applicability of Decision Support Methods and Frameworks

Marine, Coastal, and Island Systems

Urban, Dryland and Polar systems

Forest systems

Cultivated systems

Inland water and Mountain systems

Box Figure B. Proportion of Population with Improved Drinking Water Supply in 2002

Box Figure C. Proportion of population with improved sanitation coverage in 2002

Figure 1.2. Conversion of Terrestrial Biomes

Figure 1.3. Decline in Trophic Level of Fisheries Catch Since 1950

Figure 1.4. Locations reported by various studies as undergoing high rates of land cover change in the past few decades.

Figure 1.5. Global Trends in the Creation of Reactive Nitrogen on Earth by Human Activity, with Projection to 2050

Figure 1.7. Growth in Number of Marine Species Introductions.

Figure 1.8. Species Extinction Rates

Figure 3.4. Collapse of Atlantic Cod Stocks Off the East Coast of Newfoundland in 1992

Figure 3.5. Dust Cloud Off the Northwest Coast of Africa, March 6, 2004

Figure 3.6. Changes in Economic Structure for Selected Countries

Figure 3.7. Human Population Growth Rates, 1990-2000, and Per Capita GDP and Biological Productivity in 2000 in MA Ecological Systems

Figure 4.1. GDP Average Annual Growth, 1990-2003

Figure 4.2. Per capita GDP Average Annual Growth, 1990-2003

Figure 4.3. Main Direct Drivers of Change in Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Figure 5.1. MA World Population Scenarios

Figure 5.3. Number of Ecosystem Services Enhanced or Degraded by 2050 in the Four MA Scenarios

Figure 6.1. MA Sub-Global Assessments

Figure 7.1. Characteristic Time and Space Scales Related to Ecosystems and Their Services

Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being

Box 6.1 Local Adaptations of MA Conceptual Framework

Scenarios of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

MA Scenarios - Global Orchestration

MA Scenarios - Order from Strength

MA Scenarios - TechnoGarden

MA Scenarios - Adapting Mosaic

Marine, Coastal and Island systems

Urban, Dryland and Polar systems

Forest and Cultivated systems

Inland waters and Mountain systems

MA Systems

Box 2.1: Ecosystem Services

Box 2.1: Ecosystem Services

Box 3.2. Ecosystems and the Millennium Development Goals

Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being: Basic Materials for a Good Life

Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being: Health

Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being: Good Social Relations

Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being: Security

Box 3.1. Linkages between Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being: Freedom of Choice and Action

Box 6.1 Local Adaptations of MA Conceptual Framework

Figure 1.1. Time Series of Intercepted Continental Runoff and Large Reservoir Storage, 1900-2000

Figure 1.6. Estimated Total Reactive Nitrogen Deposition from the Atmosphere

Figure 2.1. Estimated Global Marine Fish Catch, 1950-2001.

Figure 2.2. Trend in Mean Depth of Catch Since 1950.

Figure 3.1. Net National Savings Adjusted for Investments in Human Capital, Natural Resource Depletion, and Damage Caused by Pollution compared with Standard Net National Savings Measurements

Figure 3.2. Annual Flow of Benefits from Forests in Selected Countries

Figure 3.3. Economic Benefits Under Alternate Management Practices

Table 4.1. Increase in Nitrogen Fluxes in Rivers to Coastal Oceans

Figure 5.2. Comparison of Global River Nitrogen Export

Figure 5.4. Number of Undernourished Children Projected in 2050 Under MA Scenarios

Figure 5.5. Net Change in Components of Human Well-being Between 2000 and 2050 Under MA Scenarios.

Figure 8.1. Total Carbon Market Value per Year (in million dollars nominal)