Table 6.1. Prospects for Attaining the 2010 Sub-targets Agreed to under the Convention on Biological Diversity

Goals and Targets	Prospects for Progress by 2010
Protect the components of biodiversity
Goal 1. Promote the conservation of the biological diversity of ecosystems, habitats, and biomes. Target 1.1: At least 10% of each of the world’s ecological regions effectively conserved. Target 1.2: Areas of particular importance to biodiversity protected.	Good prospects for most terrestrial regions. Major challenge to achieve for marine regions. Difficult to provide adequate protection of inland water systems.
Goal 2. Promote the conservation of species diversity. Target 2.1: Restore, maintain, or reduce the decline of populations of species of selected taxonomic groups. Target 2.2: Status of threatened species improved.	Many species will continue to decline in abundance and distribution, but restoration and maintenance of priority species possible. More species will become threatened, but species-based actions will improve status of some.
Goal 3. Promote the conservation of genetic diversity. Target 3.1: Genetic diversity of crops, livestock, and harvested species of trees, .sh, and wildlife and other valuable species conserved, and associated indigenous and local knowledge maintained.	Good prospects for ex situ conservation. Overall, agricultural systems likely to continue to be simplified. Signi.cant losses of fish genetic diversity likely. Genetic resources in situ and traditional knowledge will be protected through some projects, but likely to decline overall.
Promote sustainable use
Goal 4. Promote sustainable use and consumption. Target 4.1: Biodiversity-based products derived from sources that are sustainably managed, and production areas managed consistent with the conservation of biodiversity. Target 4.2: Unsustainable consumption of biological resources or that has an impact on biodiversity reduced. Target 4.3: No species of wild flora or fauna endangered by international trade.	Progress expected for some components of biodiversity. Sustainable use unlikely to be a large share of total products and production areas. Unsustainable consumption likely to increase. Progress possible, for example through implementation of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora.
Address threats to biodiversity
Goal 5. Pressures from habitat loss, land use change and degradation, and unsustainable water use reduced. Target 5.1: Rate of loss and degradation of natural habitats decreased.	Unlikely to reduce overall pressures in the most biodiversity-sensitive regions. However, proactive protection of some of the most important sites is possible.
Goal 6. Control threats from invasive alien species. Target 6.1: Pathways for major potential alien invasive species controlled. Target 6.2: Management plans in place for major alien species that threaten ecosystems, habitats, or species.	Pressure is likely to increase (from greater transport, trade, and tourism, especially in Global Orchestration scenario). Measures to address major pathways could be put in place (especially in Global Orchestration and TechnoGarden scenarios). Management plans could be developed.
Goal 7. Address challenges to biodiversity from climate change and pollution. Target 7.1: Maintain and enhance resilience of the components of biodiversity to adapt to climate change. Target 7.2: Reduce pollution and its impacts on biodiversity.	Pressures from both climate change and pollution, especially nitrogen deposition, will increase. These increases can be mitigated under UNFCCC for climate change and through agricultural and trade policy, as well as through energy policy for nitrogen pollution. Mitigation measures include carbon sequestration through LULUCF and use of wetlands to sequester or denitrify reactive nitrogen. Proactive measures to reduce impacts on biodiversity possible, but challenging given other pressures.
Maintain goods and services from biodiversity to support human well-being
Goal 8. Maintain capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services and support livelihoods. Target 8.1: Capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services maintained. Target 8.2: Biological resources that support sustainable livelihoods, local food security, and health care, especially of poor people, maintained.	Given expected increases in drivers, can probably be achieved only on a selective basis by 2010. Attainment of target 8.2 would contribute to the achievement of the MDG 2015 targets, especially targets 1, 2, and 9.
Protect traditional knowledge, innovations and practices
Goal 9. Maintain sociocultural diversity of indigenous and local communities. Target 9.1: Protect traditional knowledge, innovations, and practices. Target 9.2: Protect the rights of indigenous and local communities over their traditional knowledge, innovations, and practices, including their rights to bene.t sharing.	It is possible to take measures to protect traditional knowledge and rights, but continued long-term decline in traditional knowledge likely.
Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the use of genetic resources
Goal 10. Ensure the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of the use of genetic resources. Target 10.1: All transfers of genetic resources are in line with the CBD, the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, and other applicable agreements. Target 10.2: Bene.ts arising from the commercial and other utilization of genetic resources shared with the countries providing such resources.	Progress is possible. In the MA scenarios, more equitable outcomes were obtained under the Global Orchestration and TechnoGarden scenarios, but were not achieved under Order from Strength .
Ensure provision of adequate resources
Goal 11. Parties have improved financial, human, scientific, technical, and technological capacity to implement the Convention. Target 11.1: New and additional financial resources are transferred to developing-country Parties to allow for the effective implementation of their commitments under the Convention, in accordance with Article 20. Target 11.2: Technology is transferred to developing-country Parties to allow for the effective implementation of their commitments under the Convention, in accordance with Article 20.	Progress is possible. In the MA scenarios, this outcome would be more likely under the Global Orchestration and TechnoGarden scenarios, but is less likely to be achieved through Adapting Mosaic and would not be achieved under Order from Strength.

Source: MA
  Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis (2005), p.26-27

Biodiversity & Human Well-being

Direct cross-links to the Global Assessment Reports of the Millennium Assessment

Box 1. Biodiversity and Its Loss— Avoiding Conceptual Pitfalls

Box 1.1. Linkages among Biodiversity, Ecosystem Services, and Human Well-being

Box 1.2. Measuring and Estimating Biodiversity: More than Species Richness

Box 1.3. Ecological Indicators and Biodiversity

Box 1.4. Criteria for Effective Ecological Indicators

Box 2. MA Scenarios

Box 2.1. Social Consequences of Biodiversity Degradation (SG-SAfMA)

Box 2.2. Economic Costs and Benefits of Ecosystem Conversion

Box 2.3. Concepts and Measures of Poverty

Box 2.4. Conflicts Between the Mining Sector and Local Communities in Chile

Box 3.1. Direct Drivers: Example from Southern African Sub-global Assessment

Box 4.1. An Outline of the Four MA Scenarios

Box 5.1. Key Factors of Successful Responses to Biodiversity Loss

Figure 3.3. Species Extinction Rates

Figure 1.1. Estimates of Proportions and Numbers of Named Species in Groups of Eukaryote Species and Estimates of Proportions of the Total Number of Species in Groups of Eukaryotes

Figure 1.2. Comparisons for the 14 Terrestrial Biomes of the World in Terms of Species Richness, Family Richness, and Endemic Species

Figure 1.3. The 8 Biogeographical Realms and 14 Biomes Used in the MA

Figure 1.4. Biodiversity, Ecosystem Functioning, and Ecosystem Services

Figure 2. How Much Biodiversity Will Remain a Century from Now under Different Value Frameworks?

Figure 2.1. Efficiency Frontier Analysis of Species Persistence and Economic Returns

Figure 3. Main Direct Drivers

Figure 3.1. Percentage Change 1950–90 in Land Area of Biogeographic Realms Remaining in Natural Condition or under Cultivation and Pasture

Figure 3.2. Relationship between Native Habitat Loss by 1950 and Additional Losses between 1950 and 1990

Figure 3.3. Species Extinction Rates

Figure 3.4. Red List Indices for Birds, 1988–2004, in Different Biogeographic Realms

Figure 3.5. Density Distribution Map of Globally Threatened Bird Species Mapped at a Resolution of Quarter-degree Grid Cell

Figure 3.6. Threatened Vertebrates in the 14 Biomes, Ranked by the Amount of Their Habitat Converted by 1950

Figure 3.7. The Living Planet Index, 1970–2000

Figure 3.8. Illustration of Feedbacks and Interaction between Drivers in Portugal Sub-global Assessment

Figure 3.9. Summary of Interactions among Drivers Associated with the Overexploitation of Natural Resources

Figure 3.10. Main Direct Drivers

Figure 3.11. Effect of Increasing Land Use Intensity on the Fraction of Inferred Population 300 Years Ago of Different Taxa that Remain

Figure 3.12. Extent of Cultivated Systems, 2000

Figure 3.13. Decline in Trophic Level of Fisheries Catch since 1950

Figure 3.14. Estimated Global Marine Fish Catch, 1950–2001

Figure 3.15. Estimates of Forest Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Causes

Figure 3.15. Estimates of Forest Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Causes

Figure 3.15. Estimates of Forest Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Causes

Figure 3.15. Estimates of Forest Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Causes

Figure 3.15. Estimates of Forest Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Causes

Figure 3.15. Estimates of Forest Fragmentation due to Anthropogenic Causes

Figure 3.16. Fragmentation and Flow in Major Rivers

Figure 3.17 Trends in Global Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer, 1961–2001 (million tons)

Figure 3.18 Trends in Global Use of Phosphate Fertilizer, 1961–2001 (million tons)

Figure 3.19. Estimated Total Reactive Nitrogen Deposition from the Atmosphere (Wet and Dry) in 1860, Early 1990s, and Projected for 2050

Figure 3.20. Historical and Projected Variations in Earth’s Surface Temperature

Figure 4. Trade-offs between Biodiversity and Human Well-being under the Four MA Scenarios

Figure 4.1. Losses of Habitat as a Result of Land Use Change between 1970 and 2050 and Reduction in the Equilibrium Number of Vascular Plant Species under the MA Scenarios

Figure 4.2. Relative Loss of Biodiversity of Vascular Plants between 1970 and 2050 as a Result of Land Use Change for Different Biomes and Realms in the Order from Strength Scenario

Figure 4.3. Land-cover Map for the Year 2000

Figure 4.4. Conversion of Terrestrial Biomes

Figure 4.5. Forest and Cropland/Pasture in Industrial and Developing Regions under the MA Scenarios

Figure 4.6. Changes in Annual Water Availability in Global Orchestration Scenario by 2100

Figure 4.7. Changes in Human Well-being and Socioecological Indicators by 2050 under the MA Scenarios

Figure 6.1. How Much Biodiversity Will Remain a Century from Now under Different Value Frameworks?

Figure 6.2. Trade-offs between Biodiversity and Human Well-being under the Four MA Scenarios

Table 1.1. Ecological Surprises Caused by Complex Interactions

Table 2.1. Percentage of Households Dependent on Indigenous Plant-based Coping Mechanisms at Kenyan and Tanzanian Site

Table 2.2. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Provisioning services

Table 2.2. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Regulating services

Table 2.2. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Cultural services

Table 2.2. Trends in the Human Use of Ecosystem Services and Enhancement or Degradation of the Service Around the Year 2000 - Supporting services

Table 6.1. Prospects for Attaining the 2010 Sub-targets Agreed to under the Convention on Biological Diversity