Figure 4.4 Outcomes for hunger reduction and biodiversity loss under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios.
Hunger reduction is shown as reduction in the number of malnourished children (0-5 years) in developing countries, by 2050 as compared to 2000.
Biodiversity loss is shown as the eventual loss of vascular plant species on land, due to land-use change (dark part of bars) and to the combined effects of land-use change, climate change and nitrogen deposition (total bars) by 2050, as compared to 1970.
Projections are for each of the four Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios, namely “Global Orchestration”, “Order from Strength”, “Adapting Mosaic” and “Techno-Garden”. The first two have a reactive approach to environmental issues, but differ in that the world represented by the “Order from strength” scenario is regionalized and fragmented, emphasizing security and protection, whereas the world under the “Global orchestration” scenario has moved towards increased global cooperation. The remaining two scenarios feature proactive approaches, and also differ from one another in taking a regional versus a global approach. The world represented by the “Techno-Garden” scenario is globally connected and the environment is highly managed, whereas under the “Adapting Mosaic” scenario, society emphasizes ecosystem management strategies and institutions on a local scale.
Note that there is no simple relationship between hunger reduction and biodiversity loss. The scenario “Order from strength” features poor outcomes for both hunger reduction and biodiversity conservation. However, the other three scenarios show an inverse relationship between the two goals.
Source & © CBD 
Global Biodiversity Outlook 2 (2006),
Chapter 4: Prospects and Challenges for achieving the 2010 Biodiversity Target, Section 4.2, p.63
Related publication:
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:
Table 3.1 Strategic Plan scorecard
Table 4.1 Prospects for achieving the targets of the framework for assessing progress towards the 2010 Biodiversity Target
Table 2.1 Headline indicators for assessing progress towards the 2010 Biodiversity Target †
Figure 1.1 Biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, ecosystem services, and drivers of change
Figure 2.2 Locations reported by various studies as undergoing high rates of change in forest cover in the past few decades
Figure 2.8 Degree of protection of terrestrial ecoregions and large marine ecosystems (all IUCN Protected Areas Management Categories combined)
Figure 2.9 Frequency distribution of terrestrial ecoregions by percentage surface area under protection
Figure 2.11 Change the Marine Trophic Index (early 1950s to the present)
Figure 2.12 Impact classification based on river channel fragmentation and water flow regulation by dams on 292 of the world’s large river systems
Figure 2.13 Estimates of forest fragmentation due to anthropogenic causes
Figure 2.14 Status and trends in biological oxygen demand (BOD) of major rivers in five regions (1980-2005)
Figure 2.16 Estimated total reactive nitrogen deposition from the atmosphere (wet and dry) (early 1990s)
Figure 2.17 Number of alien species recorded in the Nordic terrestrial, freshwater and marine environment
Figure 2.19 Intensity of ecological footprint
Figure 4.1 Main direct drivers of change in biodiversity and ecosystems
Box 3.3 Principles, guidelines and other tools developed under the Convention
Box 1.1 The role of biodiversity in mitigating the impacts of natural disasters
Box 1.2 Contribution of ecosystem goods and services to national economies
Box 1.3 Millennium Development Goals
Box 2.1 Headline indicators for assessing progress towards the 2010 Biodiversity Target
Box 3.1 The Ecosystem Approach
Box 3.2 Programmes of work of the Convention
Box 3.4 The biodiversity-related conventions
Box 3.5 The business case for biodiversity
Box 4.1Summary of the main findings on biodiversity of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Box 4.2 Policy options for the 2010 Biodiversity Target and beyond
Box 4.3 Elements of a strategy to reduce biodiversity loss
Box 5.1 Checklist of key actions for 2010
Figure 1.2 Economic benefits under alternative management practices
Figure 2.1 Annual net change in forest area by region (1990–2005)
Figure 2.3 Change in live coral cover across the Caribbean basin (1977-2002)
Figure 2.4 The Living Planet Index: trends in populations of terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species worldwide
Figure 2.5 Trends in European common birds in farmland and forest habitats
Figure 2.6 Red List Index for birds in marine, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems, and in forest and shrubland/grassland habitats (1988-2004)
Figure 2.7 Trends in terrestrial surface under protected areas
Figure 2.10 Trends in mean trophic levels of fisheries landings (1950-2000)
Figure 2.15 Global trends in the creation of reactive nitrogen on Earth by human activity
Figure 2.18 Global Ecological Footprint
Figure 2.20 Aid activities targeting CBD objectives from 16 developed countries (1998-2003)
Figure 3.1 Participation in Convention processes
Figure 4.2 Links between food, energy and biodiversity loss
Figure 4.4 Outcomes for hunger reduction and biodiversity loss under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios.
