Table TS.1 - Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of
1986–2005.
| |
2046–2065 |
2081–2100 |
Notes:
a Based on the CMIP5 ensemble; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986–2005. Using HadCRUT4 and its uncertainty estimate (5−95% confidence interval), the observed warming to the
reference period 1986−2005 is 0.61 [0.55 to 0.67] °C from 1850−1900, and 0.11 [0.09 to 0.13] °C from 1980−1999, the reference period for projections used in AR4. Likely ranges have not been
assessed here with respect to earlier reference periods because methods are not generally available in the literature for combining the uncertainties in models and observations. Adding projected
and observed changes does not account for potential effects of model biases compared to observations, and for natural internal variability during the observational reference period. {2.4; 11.2;
Tables 12.2 and 12.3}
b Based on 21 CMIP5 models; anomalies calculated with respect to 1986–2005. Where CMIP5 results were not available for a particular AOGCM and scenario, they were estimated as explained
in Chapter 13, Table 13.5. The contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as having uniform probability distributions, and as largely
independent of scenario. This treatment does not imply that the contributions concerned will not depend on the scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not permit a
quantitative assessment of the dependence. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to
rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. There is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a metre of sea level rise during
the 21st century.
c Calculated from projections as 5−95% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models.
For projections of global mean surface temperature change in 2046−2065 confidence is medium, because the relative importance of natural internal variability, and uncertainty in non-greenhouse
gas forcing and response, are larger than for 2081−2100. The likely ranges for 2046−2065 do not take into account the possible influence of factors that lead to the assessed range for near-term
(2016−2035) global mean surface temperature change that is lower than the 5−95% model range, because the influence of these factors on longer term projections has not been quantified due
to insufficient scientific understanding. {11.3}
d Calculated from projections as 5−95% model ranges. These ranges are then assessed to be likely ranges after accounting for additional uncertainties or different levels of confidence in models.
For projections of global mean sea level rise confidence is medium for both time horizons. |
| |
Scenario |
Mean |
Likely rangec |
Mean |
Likely rangec |
Global Mean Surface
Temperature Change (°C)a |
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5 |
1.0
1.4
1.3
2.0 |
0.4 to 1.6
0.9 to 2.0
0.8 to 1.8
1.4 to 2.6 |
1.0
1.8
2.2
3.7 |
0.3 to 1.7
1.1 to 2.6
1.4 to 3.1
2.6 to 4.8 |
| |
Scenario |
Mean |
Likely ranged |
Mean |
Likely rangedd |
Global Mean Sea Level
Rise (m)b |
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5 |
0.24
0.26
0.25
0.30 |
0.17 to 0.32
0.19 to 0.33
0.18 to 0.32
0.22 to 0.38 |
0.40
0.47
0.48
0.63 |
0.26 to 0.55
0.32 to 0.63
0.33 to 0.63
0.45 to 0.82 |
Source: IPCC 
Climate Change 2013: Technical Summary, p.90
Related publication:
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:
Box TS.1 - Treatment of Uncertainty
Figure TS.1 - Multiple complementary indicators of a changing global climate
Figure TS.2 - Change in surface temperature over 1901–2012
Figure TS.3 - Ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica
TFE.1, Figure 1 - Changes in sea surface salinity
TFE.1, Figure 2 - Changes in precipitation over 20th century
TFE.1, Figure 3 - Projected changes in precipitation, 21st century
TFE.2, Figure 1 - Comparison of observed trends with previous projections.
TFE.2, Figure 2 - Compilation of paleo sea level data
Figure TS.4 - Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions
Figure TS.5 - Atmospheric composition.
Figure TS.6 - Radiative forcing and Effective radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era
Figure TS.7 - Radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era shown by emitted components from 1750 to 2011
Figure TS.8 - (Upper) Global anthropogenic present-day emissions weighted by the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature change Potential
Figure TS.9 - Global temperatures with and without anthropogenic forcing
Box TS.3, Figure 1 - Trends in temperature changes for the last few decades.
TFE.3, Figure 1 - Observed globally and annually averaged CO2 concentrations in parts per million since 1950 compared with projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Observed global annual CO2 concentrations are shown in dark blue.
Figure TS.10 - Likely ranges of warming trends.
TFE.4, Figure 1 - The Earth’s energy budget from 1970 through 2011
TFE.5, Figure 1 - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Figure TS.11 - Simulated and observed 1951–2011 trends in the Southern Annular Mode index by season
Figure TS.12 - Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales and global scales
Box TS.4, Figure 1 - Summary of how well the current-generation climate models simulate important features of the climate of the 20th century
Box TS.5, Figure 1 - Simulations and reconstructions of the climate of the last millennium.
Box TS.6, Figure 1 - Modeled patterns of temperature and precipitation changes.
TFE.6, Figure 1 - Climate sensitivity
TFE.6, Figure 2 - Climate response
Figure TS.13 - Decadal prediction forecast quality of several climate indices.
Figure TS.14 - Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature
Figure TS.15 - Annual mean temperature change
Figure TS.16 - Maps of multi-model results for the scenarios in 2081–2100 of average percent change in mean precipitation
Figure TS.17 - Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September over the late 20th century and the whole 21st century for the scenarios
Figure TS.18 - Northern hemisphere snow cover and permafrost area over the 21st century
Figure TS.19 - Compatible fossil fuel emissions simulated by the CMIP5 models for the four RCP scenarios
Figure TS.20 - Time series (model averages and minimum to maximum ranges) and maps of multi-model surface ocean pH
TFE.7, Figure 1 - Percentage of CO2 pulse remaining in the atmosphere after a number of years
TFE.7, Figure 2 - Comparison of carbon cycle feedback metrics between the ensemble of seven General Circulation Models
Figure TS.21 - Projections of global mean sea level
Figure TS.22 - Projections from process-based models of global mean sea level
Figure TS.23 - Sea level rise in different scenarios
TFE.8, Figure 1 - Temperature increases in different scenarios
Figure TS.24 - Future change in monsoon statistics between the present-day (1986–2005) and the future (2080–2099)
Figure TS.25 - Standard deviation in CMIP5 multi-model ensembles of sea surface temperature variability over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
Figure TS.26 - Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics.
TFE.9, Figure 1 - Global projections of the occurrence of extreme events
Table TS.1 - Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of
1986–2005.
Table TS.2 - Overview of projected regional changes and their relation to major climate phenomena.
TFE.9, Table 1 - Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st
century
