Figure TS.21 - Projections of global mean sea level
Figure TS.21 - Projections from process-based models with likely ranges and median values for global mean sea level (GMSL) rise and its contributions in 2081–2100 relative to
1986–2005 for the four RCP scenarios and scenario SRES A1B used in the AR4. The contributions from ice sheets include the contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamical change,
which are also shown separately. The contributions from ice sheet rapid dynamics and anthropogenic land water storage are treated as having uniform probability distributions,
and as independent of scenario (except that a higher rate of change is used for Greenland ice sheet outflow under RCP8.5). This treatment does not imply that the contributions
concerned will not depend on the scenario followed, only that the current state of knowledge does not permit a quantitative assessment of the dependence. See discussion in
Sections 13.5.1 and 13.5.3 and Supplementary Material for methods. Based on current understanding, only the collapse of the marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if
initiated, could cause GMSL to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. This potential additional contribution cannot be precisely quantified but there is
medium confidence that it would not exceed several tenths of a metre during the 21st century. {Figure 13.10}
Source: IPCC 
Climate Change 2013: Technical Summary, p.99
Related publication:
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:
Box TS.1 - Treatment of Uncertainty
Figure TS.1 - Multiple complementary indicators of a changing global climate
Figure TS.2 - Change in surface temperature over 1901–2012
Figure TS.3 - Ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica
TFE.1, Figure 1 - Changes in sea surface salinity
TFE.1, Figure 2 - Changes in precipitation over 20th century
TFE.1, Figure 3 - Projected changes in precipitation, 21st century
TFE.2, Figure 1 - Comparison of observed trends with previous projections.
TFE.2, Figure 2 - Compilation of paleo sea level data
Figure TS.4 - Annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions
Figure TS.5 - Atmospheric composition.
Figure TS.6 - Radiative forcing and Effective radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era
Figure TS.7 - Radiative forcing of climate change during the Industrial Era shown by emitted components from 1750 to 2011
Figure TS.8 - (Upper) Global anthropogenic present-day emissions weighted by the Global Warming Potential and the Global Temperature change Potential
Figure TS.9 - Global temperatures with and without anthropogenic forcing
Box TS.3, Figure 1 - Trends in temperature changes for the last few decades.
TFE.3, Figure 1 - Observed globally and annually averaged CO2 concentrations in parts per million since 1950 compared with projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Observed global annual CO2 concentrations are shown in dark blue.
Figure TS.10 - Likely ranges of warming trends.
TFE.4, Figure 1 - The Earth’s energy budget from 1970 through 2011
TFE.5, Figure 1 - Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Figure TS.11 - Simulated and observed 1951–2011 trends in the Southern Annular Mode index by season
Figure TS.12 - Comparison of observed and simulated change in the climate system, at regional scales and global scales
Box TS.4, Figure 1 - Summary of how well the current-generation climate models simulate important features of the climate of the 20th century
Box TS.5, Figure 1 - Simulations and reconstructions of the climate of the last millennium.
Box TS.6, Figure 1 - Modeled patterns of temperature and precipitation changes.
TFE.6, Figure 1 - Climate sensitivity
TFE.6, Figure 2 - Climate response
Figure TS.13 - Decadal prediction forecast quality of several climate indices.
Figure TS.14 - Synthesis of near-term projections of global mean surface air temperature
Figure TS.15 - Annual mean temperature change
Figure TS.16 - Maps of multi-model results for the scenarios in 2081–2100 of average percent change in mean precipitation
Figure TS.17 - Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent in September over the late 20th century and the whole 21st century for the scenarios
Figure TS.18 - Northern hemisphere snow cover and permafrost area over the 21st century
Figure TS.19 - Compatible fossil fuel emissions simulated by the CMIP5 models for the four RCP scenarios
Figure TS.20 - Time series (model averages and minimum to maximum ranges) and maps of multi-model surface ocean pH
TFE.7, Figure 1 - Percentage of CO2 pulse remaining in the atmosphere after a number of years
TFE.7, Figure 2 - Comparison of carbon cycle feedback metrics between the ensemble of seven General Circulation Models
Figure TS.21 - Projections of global mean sea level
Figure TS.22 - Projections from process-based models of global mean sea level
Figure TS.23 - Sea level rise in different scenarios
TFE.8, Figure 1 - Temperature increases in different scenarios
Figure TS.24 - Future change in monsoon statistics between the present-day (1986–2005) and the future (2080–2099)
Figure TS.25 - Standard deviation in CMIP5 multi-model ensembles of sea surface temperature variability over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean
Figure TS.26 - Projected changes in tropical cyclone statistics.
TFE.9, Figure 1 - Global projections of the occurrence of extreme events
Table TS.1 - Projected change in global mean surface air temperature and global mean sea level rise for the mid- and late 21st century relative to the reference period of
1986–2005.
Table TS.2 - Overview of projected regional changes and their relation to major climate phenomena.
TFE.9, Table 1 - Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st
century
