Box 4.1. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

The MA developed four scenarios to explore plausible futures for ecosystems and human well-being. The scenarios explored two global development paths (globalized versus regionalized societies and economies) and two different approaches for ecosystem management (reactive and proactive). In reactive management, problems are addressed only after they become obvious, whereas proactive management attempts to maintain ecosystem services for the long term. These scenarios were selected to explore contrasting transitions of global society up to the year 2050.

• Globalized world with reactive ecosystem management; with an emphasis on equity, economic growth, and public goods such as infrastructure and education (also called Global Orchestration);
• Regionalized world with reactive ecosystem management; with an emphasis on security and economic growth (also called Order from Strength);
• Regionalized world with proactive ecosystem management, with an emphasis on local adaptations and learning (also called Adapting Mosaic); and
• Globalized world with proactive ecosystem management, and an emphasis on green technologies (also called TechnoGarden).

Source: MA  Desertification Synthesis Report (2005),
Chapter 4, p.11

Desertification

Figure 1.1. Schematic Description of Development Pathways in Drylands

Figure 1.2. Land Uses in Drylands

Figure 2.1. Comparison of Infant Mortality and GNP per Person in Drylands and Other MA Systems in Asia

Figure 4.1. Key Desertification-related Findings of the MA Scenarios

Figure 6.1. Linkages and Feedback Loops among Desertification, Global Climate Change, and Biodiversity Loss

Appendix A: Present-day Drylands and Their Categories

Box 7.1Droughts in the Sahel Region: Lessons Learned and Knowledge Gaps

Figure 7.1. Overlap of Urban Areas with the Four Dryland Categories

Box 4.1. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios

Table 1.1. Key Dryland Ecosystem Services