Table SPM-5. (WGIII) Characteristics of post-TAR stabilization scenarios
[Table TS 2, 3.10]a
| Category |
Radiative Forcing |
CO2 Concentrationc |
CO2-eq Concentrationc |
Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial at equilibrium, using “best estimate” climate sensitivityb,c |
Peaking year for CO2 emissionsd |
Change in global CO2 emissions in 2050 (% of 2000 emissions)d |
No. of assessed scenarios |
| (W/m2) |
(ppm) |
(ppm) |
(°C) |
(year) |
(%) |
a) The understanding of the climate system response to radiative forcing as well as feedbacks is assessed in detail in the AR4 WGI Report. Feedbacks between the carbon cycle and climate change affect the required mitigation for a particular stabilization level of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. These 5 emission reductions to meet a particular stabilization level reported in the mitigation studies assessed here might be underestimated.
b) The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3ºC [WG 1 SPM].
c) Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150. Ranges correspond to the 15th to 85th percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO2 emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with
d) 10 CO2-only scenarios.
|
| I |
2.5 – 3.0 |
350 – 400 |
445 – 490 |
2.0 – 2.4 |
2000 - 2015 |
-85 to -50 |
6 |
| II |
3.0 – 3.5 |
400 – 440 |
490 – 535 |
2.4 – 2.8 |
2000 - 2020 |
-60 to -30 |
18 |
| III |
3.5 – 4.0 |
440 – 485 |
535 – 590 |
2.8 – 3.2 |
2010 – 2030 |
-30 to +5 |
21 |
| IV |
4.0 – 5.0 |
485 – 570 |
590 – 710 |
3.2 – 4.0 |
2020 – 2060 |
+10 to +60 |
118 |
| V |
5.0 – 6.0 |
570 – 660 |
710 – 855 |
4.0 – 4.9 |
2050 – 2080 |
+25 to +85 |
9 |
| VI |
6.0 – 7.5 |
660 – 790 |
855 – 1130 |
4.9 – 6.1 |
2060 – 2090 |
+90 to +140 |
5 |
| Total |
177 |
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: "Mitigation, Summary for Policymakers" 
, p15
Related publication:
Other Figures & Tables on this publication:
Figure SPM-1. (WGI) Changes in Greenhouse Gases from Ice-core and Modern Data
Figure SPM-2. (WGI) Radiative Forcing Components
Figure SPM-3. (WGI) Changes in Temperatures, Sea Level and Snow Cover between 1850 and 2010
Figure SPM-4. (WGI) Global and Continental Temperature Change
Figure SPM-5. (WGI) Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming
Figure SPM-6. (WGI) AOGCM Projections of Surface Temperatures
Figure SPM-7. (WGI) Projected Patterns of Precipitation Changes
Figure SPM-1. (WGII) Changes in physical and biological systems and surface temperature 1970-2004
Figure SPM-2. (WGII) Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change
Figure SPM-1. (WGIII) Emissions of different greenhouse gases 1970-2004
Figure SPM-2. (WGIII) Relative global development of indicators of income, energy supply, CO2 emissions and population for 1970 to 2004
Figure SPM-3a. (WGIII) Distribution of regional per capita greenhouse gas emissions
Figure SPM-3b. (WGIII) Distribution of regional greenhouse gas emissions per unit of income
Figure SPM-4. (WGIII) Global greenhouse gas emissions for 2000, 2030 and 2100
Figure SPM-5a/5b. (WGIII) Estimated global economic mitigation potential
Figure SPM-6. (WGIII) Estimated economic mitigation potential in 2030 as a function of carbon price
Figure SPM-7. (WGIII) Emissions pathways of mitigation scenarios for alternative categories of stabilization levels
Figure SPM-8. (WGIII) Relationship between stabilization scenario categories and equilibrium global mean temperature change
Figure SPM-9. (WGIII) Cumulative emissions reductions for alternative mitigation measures for 2000 to 2030 (left-hand panel) and for 2000-2100 (right-hand panel)
Global greenhouse gas emissions 1970-2004
Table SPM-1. (WGI) Observed rate of sea level rise and estimated contributions from different sources.
Table SPM-2. (WGI) Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend, and projections for extreme weather events for
which there is an observed late 20th century trend.
Table SPM-3. (WGI) Projected globally averaged surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century.
Table SPM-1. (WGII) Examples of possible impacts of climate change due to changes in extreme weather and climate events
based on projections to the
mid- to late 21st century. These do not take into account any changes or developments in adaptive capacity. Examples of all entries are to be found
in chapters in the full Assessment (see source at top of columns). The first two columns of the table (shaded yellow) are taken directly from the
Working Group I Fourth Assessment (Table SPM-2). The likelihood estimates in Column 2 relate to the phenomena listed in Column 1.
Table SPM-4. (WGIII) Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2030a for least-cost trajectories towards different long-term stabilization levels.b,c
Table SPM-5. (WGIII) Characteristics of post-TAR stabilization scenarios
[Table TS 2, 3.10]a
Table SPM-6. (WGIII) Estimated global macro-economic costs in 2050 relative to the baseline for
least-cost trajectories towards different long-term stabilization targetsa
[3.3, 13.3]
Table SPM-7. (WGIII) Selected sectoral policies, measures and instruments that have shown to be
environmentally effective in the respective sector in at least a number of national cases.
Table SPM-1. (WGIII) Global economic mitigation potential in 2030 estimated from bottom-up studies.
Table SPM-2. (WGIII) Global economic mitigation potential in 2030 estimated from top-down studies.
Table SPM-3. (WGIII)
Key mitigation technologies and practices by sector. Sectors and technologies are listed in no particular order. Non-technological practices, such as lifestyle changes, which are cross-cutting, are not included in this table (but are addressed in paragraph 7 in this SPM).
Figure SPM-2. (WGII) Key impacts as a function of increasing global average temperature change
Figure SPM-6. (WGIII) Estimated economic mitigation potential in 2030 as a function of carbon price
Likelihood
The Emission Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
Box SPM-2 (WGIII) Mitigation potential and analytical approaches
Box SPM-3 (WGIII) Assumptions in studies on mitigation portfolios and macro-economic costs
Box SPM-4 (WGIII) Modelling induced technological change
Parties & Observers of the UNFCCC
