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Contributors: IPCC references come from IPCC WG I SPM , other references are selected by the GreenFacts Foundation

3. What climate changes are expected for the future?

3.1. What emission scenarios are projected?

See IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group 1:

• Chapter 4.4.5  : Atmospheric Composition for the IPCC Scenarios to 2100
• See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 
• Greenhouse gases
  • Chapter 3.7.3  : Coupled Model Responses and Implications for Future CO₂ Concentrations
  • Chapter 3.7.1  : Terrestrial Carbon Model Responses to Scenarios of Change in CO₂ and Climate
  • Chapter 3.7.2  : Ocean Carbon Model Responses to Scenarios of Change in CO₂ and Climate
  • Chapter 3.2.2  : Terrestrial Carbon Processes
  • Chapter 4.4.5  : Atmospheric Composition for the IPCC Scenarios to 2100
  • Chapter 4.5  : Open Questions
  • Chapter 4.6  : Overall Impact of Global Atmospheric Chemistry Change
  • See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 

Aerosols

• Chapter 5.5.2  : Climate Change and Natural Aerosol Emissions
• Chapter 5.5.3  : Simulation of Future Aerosol Concentrations

See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 

Radiative forcing over the 21st century

• Chapter 6.15.2  : SRES Scenarios
• See also the SRES Tables in Appendix II 

3.2. What climate changes are projected for the 21st century?

See IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group 1:

• Temperature
  • Chapter 9.3.3  : Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios
  • Chapter 2.2.2  : Temperature in the Instrumental Record for Land and Oceans
  • Chapter2.3.2  : Temperature of the Past 1,000 Years
  • Chapter 2.4  : How Rapidly did Climate Change in the Distant Past?
  • Chapter 10.3.2  : Simulations of Climate Change
  • Chapter 8.6.1  : 20th Century Coupled Model Integrations Including Greenhouse Gases and Sulphate Aerosols
  • Chapter 12.4.3  : Optimal Fingerprint Methods
  • Chapter 13.5.1  : Representing Uncertainty in Climate Scenarios
  • Chapter 13.5.2  : Approaches for Representing Uncertainties
  • Chapter 9.3.2  : Patterns of Future Climate Change
  • See also Box 10.1 : Regional climate change in AOGCMs...

• Precipitation
  • Chapter 9.3.1  : Global Mean Response
  • Chapter 9.3.6  : Changes of Extreme Events
  • Chapter 10.3.2  : Simulations of Climate Change
  • See also Box 10.1 : Regional climate change in AOGCMs...

• Extreme events
  • Chapter 2.1  : Observed Climate Variability and Change
  • Chapter 2.2  : How Much is the World Warming?
  • Chapter 2.5  : How have Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture Changed?
  • Chapter 2.7.2  : Is There Evidence for Changes in Variability or Extremes?
  • Chapter 2.7.3  : Is There Evidence for Changes in Extreme Weather or Climate Events?
  • Chapter 9.3.6  : Changes of Extreme Events
  • Chapter 10.3.2  : Simulations of Climate Change
  • Chapter 2.7.3  : Is There Evidence for Changes in Extreme Weather or Climate Events?

• El Niño
  • Chapter 9.3.5  : Changes in Variability
  • Monsoons Chapter 9.3.5  : Changes in Variability
  • Thermohaline circulation Chapter 9.3.4  : Factors that Contribute to the Response
  • Snow and ice Chapter 9.3.2  : Patterns of Future Climate Change Chapter 11.5.1  : Global Average Sea Level Change 1990 to 2100 Chapter 11.5.4  : Longer Term Changes
  • Sea level Chapter 11.5.1  : Global Average Sea Level Change 1990 to 2100

3.3. What climate changes are projected for future centuries?

See IPCC Third Assessment Report of Working Group 1:

• Chapter 3.2.3  : Ocean Carbon Processes
• Chapter 4.4  : Projections of Natural Emissions in 2100
• Chapter 6.15  : Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings
• Chapter 9.3.3  : Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios
• Chapter 9.3.4  : Factors that Contribute to the Response
• Chapter 11.5.4  : Longer Term Changes

Fuente y © IPCC references come from IPCC WG I SPM , other references are selected by the GreenFacts Foundation

Cambio Climático Evaluación 2001

Capacidad de Adaptación, Vulnerabilidad e Inquietudes Principales por Regiones

Tabla 1

Tabla SPM.1

Escenarios de emisiones del Informe especial sobre escenarios de emisiones (IE-EE)

Notas del Resumen para Responsables de Políticas del GT I del IPCC

Figura 2

Figura 3

Enlaces sobre Cambio Climático

Temperaturas medias mundiales anuales simuladas

Variaciones de la temperatura de la superficie de la Tierra

El clima mundial del Siglo XXI

Links on Climate Change

Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (IPCC)

Organización Meteorológica Mundial

Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Medio Ambiente

"Impactos documentados del cambio climático"

Enlaces sobre Cambio Climático

Notas del Resumen para Responsables de Políticas del GT II del IPCC

Figura SPM-2 - Motivos de inquietud

Footnotes for Table 1 of IPCC SPM WG II

Footnotes for the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC Working Group II

Figura SPM-3 - Cambios en la escorrentía anual (mm año-1)

Enlaces sobre Cambio Climático

Regiones IPCC

Notas del Resumen para Responsables de Políticas del GT III del IPCC

Fig-SPM.1 Comparación de escenarios de referencia y de estabilización

Enlaces sobre Cambio Climático

"Carbono en reservas y recursos de petróleo, gas y carbón en comparacion con las emisiones históricas (en gigatoneladas)"

Notas de la Tabla SPM-1 (Pregunta 6.2.1)

Variaciones en los indicadores de tempereratura

Figura 20

Other views on Climate Change

The Source & © for Question 11 and the Conclusion:

US Global Change Research Information Office

US Environmental Protection Agency

Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático

Foro del Buen Ayre

Climate Action Network

Organización de las Naciones Unidas

World Wide Fund for Nature

Ciencia@NASA